CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2016-04-06T14:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2016-04-06T14:00ZCME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-09T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Please enter the full notification: ## Summary: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2016-04-06T16:24Z. Estimated speed: ~464 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): 14/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes). Activity ID: 2016-04-06T16:24:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Mars around 2016-04-12T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a slight chance of glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2016-04-09T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-04-06T16:24:00-CME-001): http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gifLead Time: 39.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Karin Muglach (GSFC) on 2016-04-08T02:57Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement